The Big Picture
Tesla held the long-term downtrend for a few months and formed a Bullish Flag Pattern on the bigger timeframes. This is the type of setup I want to SEE; here's how I executed it.
Big Picture Variables
- The AI theme stimulates FOMO in "AI names," putting a Bid in tech mega-cap stocks.
- Debt ceiling uncertainty progressively resolved.
- Macroeconomic data suggest a soft landing: Falling home prices, soft PMIs, plenty of jobs & strong payroll data.
- Technical Breakout on the Daily Chart: TSLA Bull Flag
Overall Market Breaking Longterm Technical Resistance: QQQ + SPY
The RSI reflects upside momentum above the 200 weekly moving average
Daily ChartPrice filled some gaps, held above those gaps, and moved higher. This type of price action tells me the price wants to go higher, triggering my trading brain to look for an entry.Daily Variables
- Price is making higher lows.
- Turning resistance into support.
- Support from the 50 & 100 daily Moving averages.
30min Timeframe
On this 30min chart, I identify a wedge pattern and enter the breakout. I add two more times until my Reasons to Cover , come into play.
Keep in mind, I am adding to my position when the market was in my favor.
Intraday Timeframe
Day 1I identified my A+ SET UP and loaded up as price action confirmed my thesis (my thesis being the AI fomo + debt ceiling resolution + Bull flag = A+ Trade). Remember, I also had the overall market in my favor and strong intraday fundamentals.Intraday variablesRVOL above 1 ✅
- VWAP support ✅
- Overall Market is in my favor ✅
Day 2Once Price got back above VWAP, I looked to add when previous resistance turned into support. Intraday variables
- RVOL above 1 ✅
- VWAP support ✅
- Overall Market in my favor ✅
Day 3Price got above and held the Pre-market highs, eventually trading above VWAP, making consistent new highs on the day. I followed my rules and covered when PMHs broke down; however, If I had switched to the 5min or 3min candles, I wouldn't have seen all the noise and continued to hold. However, I stuck with my decision because at the time the QQQs were making new lows on the day after exploding at the open (the overall market was not in my favor). Once the overall market got back above VWAP, I added to my position and covered when my reasons to sell kicked in.Intraday variables
- RVOL above 1 ✅
- VWAP support ✅
- Overall Market in my favor ✅
Where can I get better?
- I should have added more size on DAY 1 becasue that day gave me the ultimate A+ setup.
I could have added on those days when the price pulled back hard and held the previous resistance turning it into support.
I hope this brought you value!Jeremy Fielder