over 1 year ago

    #Stock Market
    #Economics
    End GAME SIGNALS + WAVE TWO FOMO cover image

    End GAME SIGNALS + WAVE TWO FOMO

    JF

    Jeremy Fielder

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    WAVE TWO FOMO continues...here's why

    1) Inflations Evaporating

    • CPI falls deeper into restrictive territory,
    • PPI is Virtually ZERO
    • Sticky Inflation is Evaporating 
    • Lowest "CORE" Since Oct 2021
    • Shelter is the Primary component keeping inflation "sticky", & keeping the Fed from ending the War against inflation. 
    So Inflation is falling while growth is set to rebound.

    GDP Growth is bottoming 
    • The GDPNow estimates for real GDP growth in the Q2-2023 is 2.3 percent on July 10, up from 2.1 percent on July 6.

    • The Nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 9.6 percent to 10.5 percent.

    • Consumer Sentiment is Rebounding
    • Savings Rate is rising (incomes are steady because there are jobs)
    • Service Activity is expanding (carrying the economy)
    • Food,Energy and Producer Inflation is coming down

    2) The Cost of Global Trade Just got Cheaper

    G4 Money Growth YoY​
    This doesn't even Take into account Gov Spending
    • More Fiscal 

    3) RISKS are Evaporating



    4) Market Breadth is Increasing

    • Over 250 Stocks up 100% YTD 
    • 259 Stocks up 100% in 2023
    Advance Decline by Sector 

    More Breadthe

    Historically Bullish 
    • Let's Not forget, Stocks are Still SQUEEZING, while earnings are Set to Bottom.

    5) Earnings Maybe Troughing

    • Negative EPS guidance Falls
    • Positive EPS Guidance Rises 
    •  41% of S&P 500 companies issuing EPS guidance for Q2 are issuing positive EPS guidance.
    • Q2 has the highest number of S&P 500 companies issuing positive EPS guidance since Q3 2021.
    • Information Technology and Industrials sectors have the highest number of companies issuing positive EPS guidance.
    • Software and Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment industries have the highest number of companies issuing positive EPS guidance in the Information Technology sector.
    • Retaining Earnings
    • So Far the Big Banks are beating Estimates
    Valuations Don't matter When EVERYONES underweight There's a rush to get in because
    • inflation is moderating
    • the economy is stronger than expected
    • and earnings are bottoming.
    When investors are Over-weight than Valuation concerns  come into Play.

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    When this SHIP Turns Around

    • Record Short Positioning on FIXED INCOME may be turning around....

    • Uncertain about second 1/2 of year
    • Inflation moderating (Rate of inflation is below the rate of interest) 

    • Demand for Fixed income.

    • Record Short Positioning on FIXED INCOME

    CONCERNS



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