Somethings going to Break!
👇🏽 Economic Sentiment
The U.S. economy is currently facing a crisis that's potentially more severe than the 2008 financial meltdown. Consumers are burdened with escalating student loan repayments and unprecedented credit card debt, which threatens to stifle spending. Simultaneously, regional banks are grappling with an accumulation of non-performing commercial real estate loans. Businesses sensitive to interest rate fluctuations are experiencing significant setbacks, further exacerbating the downturn. Additionally, the sustained high prices of oil are creating an inflationary environment, compelling the Federal Reserve to continue its rate hikes. This combination of factors poses a significant challenge to the nation's financial stability.
The Fed will Step in...📈Indeed, it seems inevitable that something will break. But if the Banking Crisis in March 2023 taught us anything, it's that the Fed is always ready to step in. The decision-makers won't let the entire system crash.
Santa Claus Rally
1) SeasonalitySeasonal spending drives temporary employment opportunities, leading to periodic economic growth and associated stock market surges. December might witness the last significant spending push from consumers for the year.
Bearish is BullishPeak Put buying = Market Bottom
Strong 4th Quarter Economy
The business cycle is showing signs of acceleration, indicating that we are in the early stages of economic growth for the manufacturing sector. Conversely, the services sector appears to be in the late stages of its cycle.
- Jobless Claims are Rolling Over
- The Unemployment Rate isn't budging
- Payrolls have exceeded Expectations
- Wage Inflation is Non-Existant
- Productivity is making a comeback
Core Inflation is Falling
Employment Report 👇🏽
Productivity Gains 👇🏽
Inflation 👇🏽Macro Reversal
Key Macro Forces May be reversing, If so, we should see a monster Stockmarket RALLY in Q4.
Liquidity looks to be reversing
BIG TECH LEADS THE RALLY
Corporations have secured low interest rates, allowing them to leverage their cash in money market funds (MMF) to finance growth. This financial strategy enables them to buy back their own shares, leading to a scarcity that can boost earnings per share (EPS). Wall Street is increasingly focused on efficiencies, with a particular interest in artificial intelligence (AI). These share buybacks further emphasize the strategic financial maneuvers companies are employing to enhance shareholder value
Tech is Setting up
QQQ
TSLA
AMD