Stay Bullish | Macro Report

When investors lean one way (short/ sitting/cash /not all in) expecting a crash, and the market moves higher, it's because the SURPRISES are positive. Humans are wired to avoid pain (psychological/emotional/physical), So we prioritize focusing on the negative, blinding us from opportunity. The pain of the past was so great we deny that good things are happening. There's a bull market starring you in the face. All you have to do is buy and remain patient.4 Reasons The Market Won't Crash...in July

1) Lots of Cash on the Sidelines

Margin Debt

Sub Zero-Margin debt Suggests investors are still bearish on the market or at least "NOT ALL IN."

The separation between price and leverage tells me the real leverage hasn't even begun. So what takes us there?
Lots of Cash on the Sidelines

FLOWS

Equity + Bond Inflows remain Negative
Lots of Cashon the Sideline

2) Wave Two FOMO: Evaporating Risks

Here comes the cash

Don't underestimate the ETF Catalyst...This is bigger than Bitcoin; it's the acceptance of Tokenization.

OMG, Rates are RISING

The Dollar is Unanchoring from Rising Rates
RISK ON

OMG, Commercial Real ESTATE RISK

The rollover in regional banks results in more "MONEY PRINTING." BTFP

Bank Term Funding Program
Buy The Fed Pivot
Buy The F***ing DIP

OMG, higher rates, balance sheet-Runoff

It's not unusual for Equities to climb during QT when you got QE from the White House.

The Largest Risk

Inflation re-accelerates

3) Recovering Economy

Pockets of Strength Pockets of Weakness
Manufacturing Recession
Services Expansion
Some Strengths Some Weaknesses

Manufacturing Activity continues to decline into recession territory... however, New orders, Supplier deliveries, & inventories suggest we are close to a bottom. I believe it bottoms over the next few months due to government spending to onshore manufacturing facilities in the U.S.

The Decline in Prices Paid suggests NO SUPPLY SIDE INFLATION.

Services Activity suggests the Service economy is expanding.

Prices Paid are declining, suggesting NO SUPPLY SIDE INFLATION

Strength in some Sectors + Weakness in others

Inflation

Elevated Wage Pressure
The Employment Cost Index (ECI) measures changes in labor costs, including wages and salaries, health insurance, and employee benefits. A rising ECI signals rising labor costs, which can significantly reduce corporate profits and may lead to higher consumer prices. Therefore, the Fed views ECI as an important indicator to monitor for signs of a wage-price spiral.