The Good News | S&P Fundamentals
- S&P Earnings Estimates are Turning Positive for the first time in two years.
Estimates Bottomed somewhere between April and July.
- Q3 2023 Estimates are being Leg by Big Tech.
The Good News | Technicals
- Leading sectors
- Volatility Risk Collapsing...Appetite for Risk
- Equity Credit Risk sliding lower ....Appetite for Risk
- Peak Put Buying Leads to the Second Leg of the Bull Market
Bad News | Macro Forces
- Crude is Breaking out of a 9-month resistance Level. Expect Headline CPI to remain Elevated.
- Higher Inflation Expectations can easily trigger the Dollar Wrecking Ball.
Good News | Macro Forces
Good News | Fed Policy
The Economy is Cooling- Q2 GDP not as hot as expected
- Private Payrolls missed expectations
- Unemployment Ripped higher
- Consumers are Set to Slowdown in 2nd Half, further cooling the
- Cooling Incomes Data
Good News | No Sign of Recession
- Spending remains Positive
- The Labor Force Participation rate is back to Pre-pandemic Highs.
- Cooling Jobs Growth but Stil Positive Still Expanding
- Top Industries Adding Jobs
- The BUSINESS CYCLE FINALLY TURNIGN UP
Bad news | Inflation
Goods are Deflating, but Services are inflating, Led by Transportation costs. Oil Prices could re-ignite Inflation.
NO REASON TO HIKE
No wage-price spiral
- Wage Growth is colling off versus a year ago.
- Largest Drop in 12 months.
The Market Is Pricing in NO HIKE