about 1 year ago

    #Investing
    #Stock Market
    #Economics
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    Extremely Bullish

    JF

    Jeremy Fielder

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    The Bear Market is over, and the next major Pullback will kick off Wave-2-FOMO.... lower highs from here.

    RISK-ON Behavior

    Market Breadth continues to expand
    • More stocks advancing than declining (near breakout)

    Volatility is reflecting confidence in RISK Taking

    • Why buy insurance when Market Risks (Inflation + Recession) continue to ease?

    Liquidity is Rising

    Your Thesis doesn't matter When Liquidity rises,

    • This is the Fed's Balance Sheet minus TGA (treasury general account) + Overnight Reverse Repo.

    • Net Liquidity = Fed Balance Sheet - ( TGA + Reverse REPO)​

    Reverse Repo Liquidity Fueling Risk Assets
    • When CPI doubled in April 2021, Liquidity left risk assets finding a safe haven in RRP
    • As CPI collapsed, RRP liquidity peaked & Stocks ripped in 2023
    • Now that CPI is in restrictive territory, RRP is draining back into risk assets
    Global Liquidity 📈
    • China is cutting rates

    •  The 2nd largest Economy (China) is back in Q.E.

    M2 Growth (Money Supply) is rising in China and Japan

    • The 2nd and 3rd largest Economies are expanding

    There's no inflation in China, so they will KEEP PRINTING

    Expect CB-Balance Sheets to Keep rising....

    • The U.S. will join soon....

    When Regional Banks BREAK 🤯 expect more BTFP, aka Liquidity from the FED.

    • BTFP  = Banks Term Funding Program

    Rolling Recession or Expansion

    The U.S. Economy is still holding up
    • It's likely we don't see a real housing crash because no one is selling their house at 3% to lock in 6% rates.
    • The Labor market remains strong driven by the services economy
    • Higher Stock market means more confidence & More spending

    HousingThe Bedrock of the U.S.Economy (Housing market ) is recovering!

    • Homebuilders are optimistic

    We saw the Largest MoM uptick of New Residential Construction in 3 years.

    Zoom out, is the bottom is in?

    Building Permits are Rising to support new construction builds

    The Homebuilders ETF confirms market sentiment - Near ALL TIME HIGHS

    • The Market is smarter than us

    ConsumersConsumers are still Spending (YoY- positive)
    • Services are Expanding with the exception of Gasoline stations which is great news (lower energy prices)
    • Goods are contracting with the exception of Motor Vehicles which boosts GDP

    Inflation may collapse

    • I expect CPI to be sub-3 by August -  Maybe 2.5%, because Oil is Set to collapse

    • Make no mistake, the global Manufacturing economy is still slowing while RUSSIA and IRAN selling CHEAP oil. So I think We see Oil in the '50s. Crushing Inflation expectations.

    • Shelter CPI is falling in real time

    • Remember Shelter is Lagging....ZILLOW and Redfin data Suggest SHELTER CPI collapses soon, along with is Headline and CORE CPI.
    • Once the Cost of Services drop (heavily influenced by SHELTER CPI), the cost of capital can drop (further igniting risk assets)


    Top 5 Picks next 18 months


    Bitcoin

    • Blockrock ETF

    • Opens the door for Retirement /401k/Pensions/
    • Institutions that don't want to mess with private keys
    Ethereum

    • Defi

    • Stablecoins
    • NFT's

    • Metaverse

    Tesla
    • Super Charger Network
    • #1 Selling car in the world
    • CyberTruck like Model-Y in 2019
    • Dojo super computer (lease)
    • Closest to Autonomous Taxi Fleet
    Palantir
    • Pure AI

    • Data Analytics

    Chainlink

    • PoR - Proof of Reserves

    • CCIP - Cross Chain Interoperability
    • ZKP- Zero Knowledge Proofs
    • A.I. resistance (Deep Fakes)