Why Space? Why Now?
Bumper, we need to be careful about what we deem space. Space is the environment within our universe, including the Earth. In our general knowledge, space is anything outside the protected environment that the world provides to the biosphere. Two commonly used definitions for space include 50 mi and 62 mi above the Earth's surface. That will be a problem for future space tourists who might debate with one another about whether they even went to space. Imagine, for a moment, that you spend 250k or more traveling to space. Only in the future to realize that the community decided on a more rigorous definition of space, discounting your trip as even going to space.The History of Space and Space ExplorationSpace is the concept that we currently understand has existed since the big bang, which occurred about 14 billion years ago. Our exploration of the heavens began when humanoids' eyes first glazed into the sky many million years ago. For the last four thousand years, we have been systematically observing the sky to understand the mechanics governing nature, which has improved since the invention of the telescope in the early 1600s. Now with rockets, we have taken a more active role in space exploration by probing space within space instead of merely observing space from afar. Humanity's space explorations have been within our Earth's orbital plane. Still, some have explored the other celestial worlds within our solar system. Now with declining launch cost(s), the possible uses of space are only going to increase over time.Some of the major historical events that have taken in space are as follows:The launch of sputnik (1957)Yuri G launched into space (1961)Apollo 11 landed on the moon (1969)The launch of Hubble into orbit (1990)The retirement of the space shuttle (2011)SpaceX first crewed mission (2020).The FAA approval of Virgin Galactic's commercial space program (2021)The timeline shows humanity's progress into the commercialization of the heavens. Soon, major players will introduce new technologies allowing a greater fraction of humanity to venture into space. Let us achieve Elon musk's goal of making humanity a multi-planetary species.If humanity continues to exist and thrive, we need to explore space. Not only is space a resource that we can use, but it is also a place where we can learn about ourselves. We have only scratched what we could learn from exploring space. It is not only an investment but also an adventure that we should take. With the advancements in technology and the convergence of various technologies with space applications today, the possibility for humanity to achieve our further expansion into the heavens is now within our grasp. We need to act now to continue the exploration of space, or we risk the possibility of losing our species' ability to continue to exist. We should honor our ancestors by giving our future the best chance to carry that legacy. The best way to predict the future is to create it - Peter Thiel.
A brief Introduction to the various S curves impacting the space industry.
Starship 1.0 and 2.0.Tesla's Optimus bot (focusing on AI > AGI)Fusion and another nuclear tech.Nurolink.VRQuantum tunneling.Enclosed Ag.Lifetime extensions.Wild Card tech.What is an S Curve?An S curve is a graphical representation of technology and or product adoption by a specific market sector. Most technologies and products we have adopted have followed a similar S-shaped adoption. Products like automobiles, personal computers, airplanes, the internet, and more seem to follow this pattern. At first slow, then rapid growth, followed by a slowdown as the product matures. Beyond this, we show what an ideal S curve and those of past and current developments might look like.
The adoption of various technologies and products in space, for example, the number of people that have ever been into space, has been small as the costs of going to space decline further. Further, the number of people going to the cosmos will increase like a rocket ship. In the coming decades, millions and maybe billions of people will be able to remember that at least once in their lives, they went into space outside the cradle of humanity.In the following paragraphs, I will discuss the technologies that will allow millions of people to go into space, maybe even billions of people.Starship 1.0 and 2.0, and beyondSpaceX has been developing Starship, which was previously called BFR (F being a modified F word). This space freighter can take approximately 125 tons of cargo into low Earth orbit. Elon aims to have a test flight early in 2023, of which the main purpose of this rocket will be to carry people to Mars. Like the other rockets currently operated by the firm, Starship will be a reusable rocket over multiple launches. Elon has estimated that at the high production level, the firm will be able to produce these new rockets at a marginal cost of two million dollars. We are using the findings presented by a systems engineer. It should be safe to assume the missile can use almost one thousand times until it has worn down from further commercial use.The above was just for the current version of the Starship. One can expect that the next version of the rocket will have a much larger capacity to ferry cargo and personnel to Mars. For example, it can carry at least eight times the mass (1,000 tons) to LEO, and when refueled in orbit, it can then launch to Mars with that same payload. Elon will need thousands of starships to achieve his goal of having one million people on Mars and the required capital to sustain them. Some of those Starships will carry the newly released Optimus bot that will be the mechanical layer of Mars.Optimus bot.Tesla's newly released robot, Optimus, was reviewed by the world on the 30th of September on AI day two. The bot will assist humanity in expanding economic activity by scaling our ability to create and deliver goods and services and allowing us to remove humans from having to do the dirty work often associated with boring, repetitive, or dangerous work.The bot would be used to do just that but on worlds beyond our own, like the red planet. For example, SpaceX can send the bots in mass years before we can send humans. Tasking Optimus with building the necessary infrastructure needed to sustain human life on places like Mars. Tasks like building homes, roads, factories, etc., could be produced by thousands of these Optimus bots. Then be ready to be occupied by humans when we can finally send them to Mars.FusionTo make frequent trips to and back from Mars, we must develop quicker means to travel there. A journey from Earth to Mars will take approximately nine months if we launch every two years. Fusion might be how we can cut that time down to under a month and allow us to travel to Mars every month or two.What is Fusion? Fusion is when you combine two or more atomic nuclei into a larger one which will, in the process, release energy. Harnessing many nuclear interactions can release the energy needed to propel humans beyond the cradle of humanity. The ability to send large fleets of starships to Mars every month or two makes it highly likely to expand humanity within the solar system and beyond reality.NeuralinkTo coordinate the massive amount of data produced by AI and other applications, we will need to use it on Mars and beyond. Implementing a Neuralink interface to connect our brain with a large amount of information into useful means will be useful. Those interfaces will monitor the body's health 24/7, observe the environment, and share thoughts and commands. That would allow for the coordination of large groups of people and the monitoring of their environment.Imagine sending an email from Mars back to Earth using our minds. That will be a great time to live. Our ability to command our economic wealth to generate additional wealth through our minds will be key in developing Mars. AI may refine our thoughts to truly understand what we want to achieve and transmit our beliefs in a manner to Constantine with those goals.Quantum tunnelingIt might be possible to transmit information (quantum state) from point A to point B Instantly across any distance. According to one paper, at a minimum of ten thousand times the speed of light (671 million miles per hour), which would be 6.7 trillion million miles per hour. If true, we could send information (0 and 1) represented by up and downs of various atomic particles faster, as allowed by Einstein's theory of relativity. If so, we can send a message to the other side of our Milky Way galaxy in as little as 7.2 years instead of (the nearly 72 thousand years using radio waves). There are two issues: how does one transmit information through quantum states and place a transmitter at another location to receive and transmit quantum states? In the distant future, we can interact with other beings in the universe in a near instant (compared to other options). Slower than the speed of light unless we can develop faster-than-light (FTL) technologies to move mass between points separated by massive amounts of spacetime. Pair the possibility of quantum tunneling with the interfaces of Neuralink.VRWith the ability to communicate with others using a neural link chip, we can interact with one another using an internal VR interface in the metaverse. As the following example illustrates, that ability will be key in short-term and long-term missions. Not so much on those of short-term duration but extremely long-term assignments. A mission to our nearest star beyond our sun (Proxima Centauri) would take 45 years, reaching 67 million MPH (ten percent of the speed of light). The acceleration that will occur during the trip, we will need to be asleep (suspended animation). We need a way to save that half-century of time as we remain asleep during that trip. If we speed up our virtual time by tenfold, we can achieve 450 years of work in the time we sleep. If we use quantum tunneling with that, we may be near instantaneous communication with those who remain at home (back in the solar system).Enclosed AGTo support humans beyond Earth, we will need to feed them in these hostile environments that are alien to how we have lived on Earth. For example, the moon is a lifeless and barren place with no atmosphere. One needs to develop effective means to meet our caloric needs. Aleph Farms and Orbital Farm are companies developing effective methods for growing food in space. These companies hope to create food with minimal resource input. The need for this technology arises from the space limitations that make it difficult to farm outside Earth.In the case of plants, Orbital Farm is developing the means to grow vegan-based protein in space as an alternative to animal-based protein. In time, it should lower the marginal cost as economies of scale kick in. They also have solutions to raise seafood and other plants in space.As for those who consume animal-based protein, our inability to raise livestock in space might bring issues. Luckily, Aleph Farms, an Israeli startup, is focused on developing 3D-printed steak. The company's co-founder and CEO, Tzachi Wiegman, believes that to sustain a human pr, luckily space, we will need to find a way to farm there. That's why Aleph Farms is working on the way to animal cells, which would require minimal resources and could be grown within the space limitations that outer space imposes. The end goal is to create a product that is inseparable from regular steak in taste and texture.Lifetime extensionOver the last couple of centuries, humans have begun to live longer; for example, a few hundred years ago, most humans only lived for a few decades (40 years). Then, our expected lifespan is now in the low to mid-eighties in the industrial world. If we wish to explore our nearest stars, we must extend our life expectancy severalfold. In this regard, there are promising technologies in the frontier that, in time, will be developed. Dr. David Sinclair is working on good research to treat aging like a disease and is confident that we can improve our ability to live to approximately 200. Some whales regularly live past two hundred years; in the wild, a certain type of tree often lives several thousand years. For example, a member of the Great Basin bristlecone pine (Pinus longaeva) has lived almost five thousand years. Imagine living a healthy fifty centuries. What can you achieve during that time?Age reversal science is pretty young. We can reverse our biological age by a single year each year. That would seem very close to living forever compared to today's life expectancy.Suppose we can live for thousands of years. We can generate several orders of magnitude of marginal contribution to humanity over our lives if allowed. Wild card techThe wild card tech we need is faster than light and will allow us to travel to any position in the cosmos within our lifetime.What are the potential market opportunities in dollar terms?
Here in this article, we will assume that a major constraint is who wants to invest for an indefinite future value in endless time. The potential market value of space one considers the universe itself is infinite should also be unlimited. Well, that might be true, but we must consider investments with durations shorter than infinite time as serious investors. Here in this article, we will assume that a major constraint is who wants to invest for an indefinite future value in endless time. I previously worked out a detailed discounted cash flow analysis for SpaceX, covering its potential for future growth in its intrinsic value. That DCF model outlines how the firm might be worth several hundred trillion dollars by mid-century. If SpaceX, like no other company, has been able to capture ALL economic value. The potential market opportunity for investors will be well above several hundreds of trillions of dollars in the next few decades. This century, the number will seem a bit absurd.With the use of the Optimus bot, SpaceX and others will be able to create quadrillions of dollars of economic value for humanity, even if people won't share that value equation. We, as investors, are keen to understand how we can assist these firms in generating and capturing that value to increase our ability to enjoy the finer things in life.In short, the global space sector can create quadrillions of dollars in the first half of the 21st century. In the next section, we'll discuss several of the best-suited processes to generate can capture said value.
How do you invest in the winners of today and tomorrow?
The most obvious winner in the global space sector will be SpaceX, and others have yet to reach the same level of maturity as Elon's firm. Unless you're a well-connected accredited investor, you'll be able to invest in shares of SpaceX. The firm might be the best potential investment for those wanting to crack this growing sector of the global economy; where are number two, three, etc., lurking? Some firms have a potential shot at becoming 10, 25, or more baggers for one's money, including Rocket Labs, Blue Origin, Varda Space Industries, Axios, Orbital Farms, Orbital Assembly, etc.SpaceX: Elon's gem in space, which he founded in 2002, is the premier firm for all things space. The firm is now valued at 125 billion dollars—the firm's goal is to have a million people living and working on Mars.Rocket Lab: The firm was founded in 2006 by Peter Beck, who still serves as its chief executive officer. The company serves the small satellite market that is primarily unserved by SpaceX.Blue Origin: Amazon's Jeff Bezos founded this firm in 2000 to fulfill his desire to see humanity expand into the expanse of the unknown. Before his divorce from his wife, MacKenzie, he only owned part of the firm. Now he has 100 percent ownership control over the direction of the firm. [https://www.techradar.com/news/blue-origin]
Varda Space Industries: Founded during the covid-19 pandemic, the firm aims to become the leading player in space manufacturing. Next decade, the real opportunity may blossom. Varda has planned to start testing in-space manufacturing in early 2023. [ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Varda_Space_Industries]Axiom Space: According to Wikipedia, the firm was founded in 2016 and has achieved much since then. It has sent several astronauts into space and working on having SpaceX send its first private space station in competition with Blue Origin's planned Orbital Reef space station.Orbital Farms - The firm among a very small sliver of the space sector working on producing fully closed-loop farms capable of growing food in the depths of space. They are focusing on having us use solar power to generate the foodstuff that humans can use in outer space.Orbital Assembly - A smaller player in the sector was working on producing a hotel-focused space station in low earth orbit. The firm has planned on finishing its voyager space station near the end of this decade.Over time I will add and subtract from this list and will add bullish and bearish reasons why I might consider investing in this list. Currently, I'm focused on Tesla and crypto (bitcoin and ether) while keeping an eye on the space sector. Over time, I will rotate my gains from my current investments into space with a focus on SpaceX (Starlink if it does a mid-2020s IPO).
Conclusion
For thousands, if not tens of thousands of years, humans have been fascinated by space. We have had to study the universe from afar, and now we can make short-term trips beyond our Earth. Still, we have developed rockets that can travel into space. To establish the cosmos to provide economic benefits for humans, we need to create the following technologies further: reusable rockets( Starship 1.0 and 2.0), AI-powered bots (Tesla's Optimus bot), Fusion, AI-enhanced brain implants (neuralink), VR (metaverse), quantum tunneling, enclosed AG, lifetime extension, and any potential wildcard tech. Many firms are working to develop the above technologies, and shortly, more and more will become investable for retail investors as most of our followers are retail investors.The potential of investors to be exposed to several quadrillion dollars of value unlocked in the upcoming decades seems wild, but if true. One would want to have material exposure to the firms that might capture the lion's share of that value. Our darling is king in SpaceX but is only readily available to some investors. Starlink might do a spinoff IPO in the middle of this decade, which might be the second best.Notes: None of the above is financial advice nor any security recommendation, and the author holds Tesla's common stock in his portfolio. No company or companies have provided monetary compensation discussed in this paper.Sources:
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