The Great Reset Continues

Let me explain why the Great Reset is on track to reach a major turning point in the second half of 2025. While others see a recession or inflation, I see a major acceleration of the economic cycle.🔥🔥🔥

The Economic Reset checkpoints

• Increase manufacturing production ✅ (happening in the US)
• lower energy ✅ (happening globally)
• Increased Liquidity ✅ (happening globally, not in the US)
• lower rates 🛑 (happening globally, not in the US)

In the past, a reset meant that a massive recession was necessary for consumer prices to cool down. Companies suffered significant earnings declines, and bull markets turned into bear markets.

Today, automation (AI) has totally changed the game. Businesses are using AI to cut costs and expand their margins, so instead of a widespread recession, we are seeing a series of rolling recessions. Some industries suffer while others shine.

• One positive of a rolling recession is cost declines👇🏽

Major Cost Declines

If the cost of energy continues to fall, we are not going to see a burst of inflation. The next level for oil is around $45/barrel. Lower gasoline prices put more money in the pocket of consumers.

Rent Inflation is falling like a rock. Lower rents put more money in the pockets of consumers.

As long as costs decline, the economic cycle remains healthy for risk appetite. It's really that simple.

People might feel the economy is bad, but they are not slowing down; the hard data suggest economic activity is rising.

The Hard Data

• As long as the hard data expands, employment expands

Now that tariffs have scared companies into building in the US we see the goods production cycle picking up. This suggests economic momentum is growing and we can expect employment to remain solid.

Goods production is picking up because consumers are still spending.

Rising Money Supply = Bull Market

As Inflation decelerates, the financial cycle accelerates! Bitcoin is a pure reflection of global liquidity.

Interest Rate Risk

• The Fed and the US 10y Treasury Rate are around 4.5%. Above this level is a problem for markets and the economy. Below 4.5% offers stable liquidity.

Rising rate risk is not about rising inflation but the lack of demand for government debt. The Genius Act is the solution as it would turn the crypto industry into a financing machine for government spending. If inflation continues to cool from automation, lower rents, and lower energy costs, rates will cool dramatically, and the Bull Market will RAGE ON.

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