The Biggest Trade in Macro

Over the next 12 months, I expect Bitcoin and the Crypto market to outperform every other asset class. The technical, fundamental, and macroeconomic conditions are setting up for an explosive cycle rally. Bitcoin is in the BANANA ZONE, so we can optimistically project 100k by the end of the year and 150k in Q1 of 2025. Let me explain!

Soul Sucking Price Action

After breaking the 2017 all-time high, Bitcoin tripled within three months. This is SOUL-SUCKING price action!

As of April 2024, Bitcoin has achieved two critical milestones that will set another soul-sucking rally in motion. I expect this Bull run to be so viscous it sucks the soul out of non-participants. Investors hate watching investments explode without them, especially when they were informed before!

It will also suck the soul out of MOST traders because the mix of eagerness and inexperience will cause them to sell way-to-early. First, they will feel relieved for taking profits. They will chant, "You can't go broke taking profits." Once crypto makes an explosive new high, they will feel regret. Regret turns into greed, leading them to chase the top, then POP! They will probably hold for too long, ignoring all the sell signals, until they sell for a huge loss or watch their account dwindle into depression as they hold for the next cycle. Either way, it can be a soul-sucking experience. Trust me, I've been there, done that, and made some huge mistakes.

False Prophets

If you wish to avoid all mistakes, you're out of luck. Anyone who tells you otherwise is a false prophet. We will all make mistakes, whether it's leaving some chips on the table or chasing a SHITCOIN. But there is Hope!

Stay tuned if you want to minimize the probability of making soul-sucking mistakes and experience huge gains; this is what I do.

1) Hyper Scarcity

The solar system is driven by gravity, and the financial system is driven by supply and demand. Demand measures how much something is desired over a period of time, while supply measures how scarce something is over a period of time. Desire alone can drive up prices, especially when there's a limited amount.

Bitcoin has a supply limit of 21 million coins which makes it the only asset with absolute sacrcity.

The Bitcoin network is unique because it is programmed to reduce its supply every four years. Something with a limited supply is already scarce, but you get hyper-scarcity when you reduce the amount that can be issued.

As of April 19th 2024, the bitcoin supply dropped from 6.25 to 3.125.

Supply Shock

April 2024 happens to be the launchpad for hyper-scarcity. When people are greedy, they hoard valuables. When investors become greedy, they are unwilling to part ways with their investments until they see the right price. The right price is different for everyone, but people are not as different as you think.

In 2024, Bit-coiners will not part with their Bitcoin until they see $100,000/BTC. $100,000 is a nice round number, and most people are predictable.

$150,000 Bitcoin in 2024 sounds insane, but we have an insane situation between the flow of money globally and institutional adoption.

2) Institutional Adoption 😍

Before the Bitcoin ETF was approved, large institutions could not accumulate large amounts of Bitcoin without going through an annoying process. Now that it's regulated as a commodity (like gold), financial institutions can let Bigger financial institutions custody the bitcoin and sell it to them for a small fee.

Think of it like an underage kid having to convince a random adult to buy alcohol for a house party. There's so much risk it's not always worth it. Now, the kid turns 21, and all those barriers disappear. At 21, the process of buying alcohol is like buying candy at a gas station. When the barrier to entry collapses for an asset, the result is DEMAND SHOCK! In other words, the price goes up.

Since January 2024, the Blackrock Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has experienced more inflows than Nasdaq (QQQ).

User Growth

It's pretty simple: the global adoption rate of crypto is outpacing that of the internet. Institutions will capitalize on this opportunity because it means profit from new markets!

In 2023, crypto gained 150 million users! That's almost half the population of the United States onboarding the blockchain ecosystem in a year.

3) Economic Momentum

After a two-year recession, the global Manufacturing Cycle is in the acceleration phase. It might take a few more months before it can fully expand. However, the U.S. government spends like a drunken sailor to support infrastructure, technology, and defense capability. This fuels the Manufacturing Cycle.

The Bitcoin Bull Cycles align nearly perfectly with the Global Manufacturing cycle.

4) Financial Momentum

Global liquidity may be the single most significant factor for Crypto. As the major Central Banks accelerate the global cutting cycle (interest rates), global liquidity will continue to rise. As liquidity accelerates, Crypto explodes.

Bitcoin vs. the Economic Cycle vs. Fed Net Liquidity

5) Election Cycles

The fourth and first years of an election Cycle are the most bullish for assets. We are only 1/4 of the way through the fourth year of an election cycle.

At this point in the election cycle, the political parties are posturing for dominance by spending, spending, and more spending! The incumbent wants to leave a lasting impression in the 4th year, and the winner will spray more juice on the fire to win over the voters.

Let's add all the factors that set up " A Golden Period for Crypto."

• The rise in Global Liquidity
• The rise of Economic Momentum
• The ETF: upside demand shock
• The Halving: downside supply shock
• Bullish Election Cycle