Recession Cancelled

👇🏽The Unemployment rate remained unchanged from the previous month (historically low).

👇🏽The US Economy added 177,000 jobs in the month of April, beating expectations.

Non-Farm Payrolls (Jobs growth)

Now that the Jobs Market is showing STABILITY, recession fears are melting away and investor confidence is returning to markets. A deal with China would not only boost business investment but allow the fed to communicate the next rate cut.

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Momentum is in full swing

SPX daily

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SPX monthly

4 things that hurt Stocks

1. No Deal or visibility on china trade deal
2. Hawkish Fed
3. Long rates remain elevated
4. Earnings revisions continue lower

WARNING SIGNS

Continuing Unemployment Claims hit the Highest level in 4 years (2021)

Confidence in the manufacturing sector slips for the 3rd month in a row.

Manufacturing Ordering is in recession territory (below 50)

Manufacturing Employment is in recession territory (below 50)

Manufacturing Prices are extremely elevated which signals stagflation.