Prepare for a pullback

The stock market doesn't respond well to 10-year interest rates above 4.5%. Rising treasury rates directly raise the US government's interest payments on debt, while they raise more debt to pay for tax cuts.

I'm watching these levels.

BIG DAY FOR DATA

If PPI is higher than expected, this could trigger a breakout in interest rates, contributing to a correction in stocks and crypto.

Worst case: If Retail sales are weaker than expected while PPI is higher, we will see a pullback.

We don't want any surprises; we want everything to be in line with a dovish Powell.

Don't get too Bearish, prepare for a pullback

• The last time this many NYSE stocks reached new 1-month highs after a significant correction, the S&P 500 surged to all-time highs within two weeks and achieved new highs within six weeks.

• Over 50% of S&P 500 Stocks are trading above their 200-day moving average, signifying a recovery.