GDP turned negative for the first time in 3 years ( Q1 2022)..but don't be fooled...

This is solely because corporations loaded up on inventory to get ahead of tariffs and foreign consumption or imports, count against GDP...because money is being spent outside of the US.

If we look closer, consumption and Business investment is way stronger than 2022 . It’s not like imports will persist, so the weakness is temporary.

Individual GDP Trends

Investment Up👇🏽

Consumption Solid 👇🏽

Government Slowing 👇🏽

Imports explode (negative)👇🏽

Personal Consumption Inflation

Q/Q Core PCE jumped in early 2024 but it turned out to be "transitory"

The Annual Trend didn't budge so there's no reason to expect annual PCE , the Long-term average to all of a sudden start heading higher, especially with falling energy prices and softer consumption.

BULLISH Technicals

At the End of the DAY BULLISH Capitulation is justified.

• Rates are falling
• Liquidity is rising
• Inflation is falling

Stocks have recovered because inflation expectations have fallen now that Trump is de-escalating tariffs and is expected to make some deals.

BULLISH Capitulation on the MONTHLY CHART.