Jun 11, 2025
Get Ready for Record Highs
BUCKLE UP.......(Bitcoin · S&P 500 · Nasdaq-100)
1. Macro Winds Turn Supportive
- Inflation expectations finally rolling over – the first decisive drop since Oct 2024 suggests the Fed can turn dovish.
- Small-business optimism just ticked up for the first time since Dec 2024, a classic early-cycle tell that Main Street is feeling better.
Inflation
Wednesday’s CPI print is the wild card.
If price pressures don’t re-accelerate, the surprise could pull Treasury yields back under 4.5 % and slam the door on recession fears.
2. Policy & Geopolitics Lining Up
- Congress is inching closer to a targeted stimulus package—more dollars, faster earnings.
- China-US trade talks are progressing; even a modest thaw removes a lingering overhang.
- Under this mix, real-rate headwinds ease and equity risk-premia compress—fertile ground for record closes.
3. Technical Internals Scream “Breadth Boom”
Internal Gauge | Current Reading | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
3-Month High List | Highest in 6 months | Momentum expanding beyond mega-caps |
Advance/Decline Line | Breaking to fresh ATHs | Confirms broad participation—no stealth rot |
4. Risk Markers to Watch
- 10-yr yield > 4.5 % – would squeeze multiples.
- CPI re-accelerates – resets the whole “disinflation” narrative.
- Breakdown under key breadth lines – signals a false breakout.
Base-Case Roadmap
- Summer 2025 – Indexes carve out new highs as liquidity improves.
- Autumn 2025 – Earnings revisions catch up; secular bull from Oct 2022 stays intact.
Bottom Line
The tape, the macro backdrop, and policy momentum are starting to rhyme. Unless yields spike or inflation surprises north of forecasts, the path of least resistance is higher—and broad. Buckle up: summer could bring the next chapter of the 2022-25 bull market.
Educational content, not individualized investment advice.