Mar 29, 2025
Flight to Safety Stocks
Defensive Stocks
Let me be clear:
The 6-9 month outlook for stocks and crypto remains stable simply because the Fed and the Trump administration are loaded with stimulus. The time will come when the Fed cuts and High beta growth assets boom!
However, in the short term, markets will experience a rough patch. The economy is slowing, but not at the pace of a recession.
Economic Indicator | Today | Slowdown | Recession |
|---|---|---|---|
PMI's | between 50-53 | between 48-50 | below 48 |
Retail Sales | 3.1% | 1% - 1.5% | below 0% |
Industrial Production | 1.4% | 0-1% | below 0% |
Unemployment Rate | 4.1% | between 4-5% | above 5% |
I don't see or believe the evidence for recession, but the US economy may be headed for a prolonged slump. These are the types of stocks I'd expect to weather the storm during a tariff-driven recession.
Defensive Slowdown
Defensive Style Factors
Ticker | Sector | Yield |
|---|---|---|
T | Telecomunication | 3.94% |
VZ | Telecomunication | 6% |
TMUS | Telecomunication | 1.2% |
PM | Tobacco | 3.48% |
CL | Household Products | 2.23% |
PG | Household Products | 2.39% |
WELL | Real Estate | 1.79% |
DUK | Utilities | 3.55% |
D | Utilities | 4.9% |
SO | Utilities | 3.2% |
JNJ | Big Pharma | 3% |
BMY | Big Pharma | 4.2% |
ABT | Medical Devices | 1.8% |
UNH | Healthcare Services | 1.63% |
TLT | Long Term Bonds | 3.76% |
Cash | 4% |