Defying Recession Concerns

Macro Data continues to defy recession concerns

• Consumer spending via Retail Sales
• Business activity via Industrial Production
• Employment via Unemployment claims
• Housing Market via Home Builder Sentiment

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Consumer Spending and Industrial production trends tell us this economy is expanding, and employment is not at risk.

The production of goods has been positive for 5 straight months

Unemployment trends are elevated but not rising.

RED FLAGS

Home builders' sentiment is pointing to very weak housing market activity; however, this does not account for Apartment builds.

The Equity and crypto markets have legs as long as 10-year rates stay below 4.5%.

With interest rates easing, solid growth data, and weaker inflation data, SPY was able to turn previous resistance into support.