A Checklist to assess potential negative market catalysts in real-time.

This checklist can be used to assess potential negative market catalysts in real time. Brought to you by DataTrek Playbook for Negative Market Catalysts 

 Risk of Recession

✅ Does it materially increase the risk of recession?  

• Does it involve exogenous events that affect business and consumer uncertainty? Examples: Oil shocks (1973, 1979, 1990), Pandemic (2020)  
• Is it related to Federal Reserve policy? Example: Fed Tightening (2022)

 Financial Stability 

✅ Does it materially threaten financial stability?  

• Does it resemble past financial crises? Examples: 1997, 1998, 2008, 2011  

Policy Response 

✅ How do policymakers respond to the catalyst?  

• Are they implementing measures to stabilize the market?  Example: Liquidity Facilities BTFP (2023) RRP Injection (2019)
• Are there indications of monetary or fiscal intervention?  example: Emergency press conference

Stock Market Response

✅ How does the US stock market respond?  

Monitor VIX levels:  

• 19.5 (long-run average)  
• 27.3 (moderate volatility)  
• 35.1 (high volatility)  
• 42.9 (extreme volatility)  

A more severe VIX response increases the likelihood of Policymaker intervention.

Timestamp 10:31 👇🏽